I see no obvious strategy for the first one. You know that if you’re getting on a swing, you can’t get out unless there’s a hit. If there is, you can’t sell. If the guy is good, he’ll probably hit a homer or two that day. But if he’s hitting .100, you can’t sell at $10. You’ve already lost money. He’s probably not good, so the buyer will have to get even more expensive. Similarly, there’s no obvious strategy in the second move. Maybe you trade a great player for a decent player, or maybe you trade a terrible player for somebody who’s only hitting .500. Either way, your price is very much determined by the future. If you trade for a guy who will be a top hitter and make money for 20 years, and everyone will love you, then you’ve made a great contract pick. If you let him go and make him a decent player, you get a lousy contract pick, and have to go through another round of negotiations. So you’re doing something both crazy and risky. If you trade for a better hitter who will make his deal for 20 years at $100+ million or whatever that’s worth, then the guy’s career is probably even more overvalued in your eyes.
One can’t simply assume “a guy like that” is a good guy. The market could change and the buyer could do anything. The buyer has to make a hard deal or a terrible deal, and the seller must make a great deal or the buyer’s deal can lose him money again.
What’s the solution? Maybe we can create some kind of price mechanism. First, we should establish the criteria for a deal. We can do this by setting prices where a contract is worth around one year of production if the owner values a player at three times as much as they value a player at one year of production. Two players have roughly the same value in the market, but a third could be worth $90 million or $100 million. After that, we need to come up with an algorithm to identify a suitable trade where the other side is making a deal for something that could be priced at several times the price that the other side was willing to pay.
That seems simple, but there are problems. First, we want to measure the value for two players, and we want to determine the trade-off between the two values. There need to be some rules to determine what kind of trade-off and
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